Just Token News

1. The bubble that the AI wave has blown into global financial markets is about to burst. The window: the next 3 to 12 months.

2. The business fundamentals of the AI tech companies are already wobbling. Humanity has locked in the habit of using AI — but the habit of paying for it is nowhere near done migrating over. A whole tier of application companies is being squeezed out by Anthropic, draining the paying power at the base of the stack.

3. This AI bull cycle, 2023 to 2027, rhymes almost note for note with the dot-com bubble of 1996 to 2000. Early 2027 is, in all likelihood, the very top where this four-year cycle’s bubble bursts. And right now? We are in the late stage of this “five-wave bull market” — not the final stage.

4. We have not yet seen the final mania: the AI titans going public en masse, their share prices exploding, and a stampede of AI-native companies scrambling to list behind them. Before that last frenzy, the Nasdaq can still print new highs; standing here today, there is no need to rush the exits. The smart way to play the secondary market is not to bet on one specific event or one specific date as “the top,” but to walk out gradually, in tranches, between Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. … More Ragnarök, Part II — The Great Ebb Tide

The crypto bubble has already burst. The odds and the payoff of “issuing a token” have both fallen below those of traditional equity financing. The old crypto players and their whole playbook are being flushed out almost entirely. As of Q2 2026, we are still in the early-to-middle stretch of the bear market.

The four-year cycle still exists — but its amplitude will shrink markedly and its boundaries will blur, because of how tightly crypto is now correlated with the macro financial markets.

Over the past six months, and the next six to twelve, crypto’s main theme will be tokenizing traditional financial assets, pulling traditional money on-chain, and growing the total stablecoin market cap. In this window, perp dex is the best track and the key entry point into the ecosystem; the one I back most is Lighter. Don’t expect a native crypto innovation narrative in the next 6–12 months.

BTC’s bottom for this bear cycle will land in Q4 2026, with a low of $30,000–$40,000. After that, the Nasdaq’s crash will carve out a “double bottom” — and that second low most likely won’t break below the first. Then, as the Nasdaq sinks into a long bear, BTC will grind through a trough before slowly climbing into a new cycle. … More Ragnarök, Part I — The End of the Old Financial Era

Author: Tony Ling Note: This article is the full version of https://x.com/Tony_lza/status/1914223870581915770. The core views were already posted on Twitter two days ago. Let’s start with the conclusion: (1) Right now might be the best time this year to buy crypto. (2) I stand by the view I shared in my December article during the last bull run: … More History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes — Don’t Miss It This Time

1. As of the time of writing, in Q4 2024, we are at the early stage of a new bull market in the crypto space.
2. The value of BTC can be analyzed on three levels:
3. Macro level: Comparable to bonds and stocks in financial history, BTC serves as the “fuel” for a new wave of technological advancement for humanity.
4. Meso level: BTC is both the currency and the index of the inevitable digital world humanity is transitioning into.
5. Micro level: With the implementation of new regulatory frameworks, token issuance will become compliant, creating a global magnet for private investment demand.
6. This may be the last “wild west” cycle for the crypto industry and the final mega cycle where BTC has significant beta growth. This suggests that after this cycle, BTC’s beta will sharply decline, though the broader token issuance market may still offer numerous 100x alpha opportunities.
7. The peak of this BTC bull market is expected in Q4 2025, with a high price range of $160,000 to $220,000. Before that, excluding the “first wave” already underway, there are two more significant waves in the mid-phase of the bull market.
8. We are currently in the “1999 of the internet era,” meaning that after the bull market peaks in the next 12-18 months, the crypto industry may face a long winter, similar to the burst of the internet bubble in 2000-2001. Of course, this will also be an opportunity for the industry to reshuffle and reorganize. I’m looking forward to it. … More 2024 & 2025: BTC’s Final Mega Cycle – The Debate Between Value and Price of BTC

Introduction Within the constantly-evolving landscape of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) [3], effective pricing models need to strike a balance between complexity and interpretability. Take, for instance, the commonly used metric of a “floor price” in NFT trading. We see that in many cases, although the floor price reflects a rough starting point and baseline metric, it … More Premium Appraisal Models for NFT Markets

Foreword: This series of articles focuses on web3, including the meaning of a series of emerging concepts such as NFTs, The Metaverse, Gamefi, and representative issues in the space. I will also describe what I think of their future from the perspective of practitioners as well as scholars. What kind of projects should be labeled … More The road to the future – one of the five parts of web3